Dr. Beate Sander's team of trainees and collaborators has successfully applied for and received funding from the Ministry of Colleges and Universities, Ontario, COVID-19 Rapid Research Fund in support of the following project:
Title: Ontario's Response to COVID-19: balancing trade-offs and improving outcomes for all Ontarians.
Duration: 2 years (Apr 1, 2020-Mar 31, 2022)
Funding Total: $509,951
The project's multidisciplinary team has developed the CORE (COVID19 Resource Estimator) model, which is extensively used by decision-makers and hospital administrators to support capacity planning and public health interventions. The CORE pilot model uses observed and predicted epidemic trajectories to estimate future case numbers and extends these predictions to model effects on the Ontario acute care system.
To support decision-makers throughout the pandemic, it is critical to expand the current CORE model to better account for individual patient characteristics, system characteristics and regional differences but also the impact of Ontario's COVID-19 response on patients without COVID-19 and the overall Ontario population.
1. Determine acute care clinical service volumes that are sustainable in the long-term
(i.e., the "new normal") considering the outcomes for patients with and without COVID-19, and taking into account periodic times of COVID-19 surge.
2. Optimize mitigation strategies (i.e., relax physical distancing while ramping up
other public health interventions, potential future treatments and vaccine) that
balance healthcare system capacity, population health and broader societal
outcomes, including the economic impact.
3. Inform future pandemic planning by considering a range of strategies, including
hypothetical strategies throughout the pandemic.
Team members include:
Beate Sander, David Naimark, Audrey Laporte, Sharmistha Mishra, Petros Pechlivanoglou, Harindra Wijeysundera, Kali Barrett, Yasin Khan, Stephen Mac, Raphael Ximenes, Kelvin Chan, Antoine Eskander, Ambika Parmar, Derrick Tam, Graham Woodward, Joseph Kim
Follow their research on Twitter @covid19mc or through their site: https://www.covid-19-mc.ca/